Despite decades of rebuking the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Ukraine started coming around following the latest Russian invasion. When the topic first came up as they were invaded, multiple countries rebuked the idea. They didn’t believe Ukraine could hold up their ends of the agreement, or that they would hold up beyond when it served them.
According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the membership of Ukraine in NATO is all but a certainty. With a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine council before the start of December on the books, it looks like there is very little holding them up from everything NATO promises for them. With billions in new funding, their huge buildup of air defense systems, as well as the opening of an F-16 training site in Romania for Ukrainian pilots helped get things moving.
Joining NATO would give them Article 5 protections immediately. This means if one country is attacked in Europe or North America, the others must get involved as well. It also won’t come without some major changes for Ukraine. This includes “full interoperability between Ukrainian forces and NATO forces…based on NATO doctrines and training procedures.” This would also mean Ukraine could no longer be at war when they join according to Stoltenberg.
During a morning briefing, Stoltenberg specified “All Allies agree that in the midst of a war full membership is not possible. But of course, we will continue to look into to address how we can move Ukraine and NATO even closer together.” Mind you, back in April, Hungary seemed taken aback at this statement. A longstanding member of NATO, they reacted as if they had not been consulted about this change, and NATO membership requires unanimous support. Given their proximity to Ukraine, they don’t want the conflict spilling into their borders.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz previously said that Ukraine simply was unprepared to become a member of NATO. He wanted them to take 2023 to get things going and start getting their ducks in a row. However, he refused to commit to the idea of Ukraine having a solid answer on joining in 2023 or even 2024.
For what it’s worth, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sees the support the nation has already gotten from NATO and considers the nation to be a member by association anyway. A side dish for his ultimate wish of becoming a member of the European Union (EU), he still has a lot of accomplishments to get through before they are taken seriously for the role.
The EU has selectively listed destroying corruption, removing oligarchs, enhancing regulation for lobbying efforts in the nation, and strengthening rights for minorities. These topics are already being heavily addressed in both the EU and NATO. While oligarchs aren’t commonly seen in those nations (they stay under wraps), they do exist there. Lobbying across NATO countries and the EU is typically limited, but the US allows this to slide.
Just getting Ukraine to make these kinds of changes on their own without outer intervention is going to be incredibly difficult. They have been a resource for other nations & political leaders like Biden as well as his family, to launder money and sneak contracts through. Joining NATO and eventually the EU will change that.
Still, though, there is a massive change that needs to occur before it can happen. Ending the war with Russia is not going to be easy, as they are sunk in for the long haul. At this point, pulling out and calling it quits will make Russia look dutifully unprepared, and combat ineffective. Despite the rest of the globe seeing Ukraine holding its ground for over a year now, they still haven’t pushed it beyond the tipping point and into victory.
Given the tie between Biden and other leaders with the funding and finance of Ukraine, expect this conflict to continue until Biden is out of office. He’ll also have cleared all his influence connections, and written immunity for himself and others he knows are involved.